The dry season in Bali, explained

BMKG explains that the start of the dry season is marked by the shift from the westerly winds of the Asian monsoon to the easterly winds of the Australian monsoon. It forecasts the season zone by zone across Indonesia — each a Zona Musim — and publishes the outlook early in the year.

It's the counterpart to the wet months: the UK Foreign Office puts Indonesia's rainy season at October to March, which our rainy season guide covers.

Source: BMKG — Musim Kemarau 2026 Datang Lebih Awal, Puncak Terjadi Agustus, press conference 4 March 2026, read 8 October 2026.

In its March 2026 outlook, BMKG forecast that:

• the dry season would start earlier than usual in most of Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara and other regions
• across Indonesia, the season would begin in stages from April, with more zones following in May and June
• the peak would come in August 2026 for most of the country — including all of Bali and Nusa Tenggara

BMKG also flagged a 50–60% chance of a weak-to-moderate El Niño from the second half of 2026, while noting the Indian Ocean Dipole was forecast to stay neutral.

The dry season is when many residents plan their big outings — hikes, island trips and long days at the beach — and when Bali's ceremonies and festivals can be enjoyed without dodging downpours.

Each year's timing shifts, so check BMKG's dry season outlook — the 2026 edition was published in March — before you lock in plans. For the 2027 holiday calendar, see our Indonesia public holidays guide.